S&P 500 Weekly Analysis

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As Mark Douglas wrote in "Trading in the zone," "The goal of the trader is to trade well, not to trade often." The previous week's price action on the S&P500 was a perfect example of this mindset. After 15 days of continuous downside movement, the price finally took off from the 3919 level, breaking the 50-day moving average at 3986 and reaching a high of 4048. The price action was a confirmation of Jack D. Schwager's belief that "Price is the ultimate indicator."

                                              

The weekly opening of 3968 and closing of 4048, along with the weekly high of 4048 and low of 3919, show the strength of the bullish move. The price has now moved above all of the commonly considered moving averages, including the 5-day and 8-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average managed to stay above the 200-day moving average, and a cross of the 5-day and 8-day moving averages is expected to happen if the upside trend continues.

 

On the daily time frame, an inside candle formed on Monday, followed by an outside candle on Thursday, which confirmed the potential reversal. The price also took support from the trendline coming from the all-time high of 4800, indicating the possibility of a new bull run. The daily stochastic RSI and RSI are both showing positive signs, with the stochastic RSI rising and the daily RSI above the 50 level.

 

However, as Douglas wrote, "The market does not know you exist. You are irrelevant to the market." While the current price action suggests a big move towards the upside in the coming weeks, it needs further confirmation. Key news announcements in the coming week include Fed Chair Powell's testimony, Jolts job openings, and Non-farm payrolls. As always, it is important to remain vigilant and follow the market's lead, rather than trying to predict its movements.

 

As a trader, my target for the coming week is to enter long positions once the upside trend is confirmed, with a weekly target of 4100 and 4150. The key support lies at 3900 and 3930, while the key resistance is at 4060 and 4100. In the words of Schwager, "The key to success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more successful people with PhDs."

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