As Mark Douglas wrote in "Trading in the zone,"
"The goal of the trader is to trade well, not to trade often." The
previous week's price action on the S&P500 was a perfect example of this
mindset. After 15 days of continuous downside movement, the price finally took
off from the 3919 level, breaking the 50-day moving average at 3986 and
reaching a high of 4048. The price action was a confirmation of Jack D.
Schwager's belief that "Price is the ultimate indicator."
The weekly opening of 3968 and closing of 4048, along with
the weekly high of 4048 and low of 3919, show the strength of the bullish move.
The price has now moved above all of the commonly considered moving averages,
including the 5-day and 8-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average
managed to stay above the 200-day moving average, and a cross of the 5-day and
8-day moving averages is expected to happen if the upside trend continues.
On the daily time frame, an inside candle formed on Monday,
followed by an outside candle on Thursday, which confirmed the potential
reversal. The price also took support from the trendline coming from the
all-time high of 4800, indicating the possibility of a new bull run. The daily
stochastic RSI and RSI are both showing positive signs, with the stochastic RSI
rising and the daily RSI above the 50 level.
However, as Douglas wrote, "The market does not know
you exist. You are irrelevant to the market." While the current price
action suggests a big move towards the upside in the coming weeks, it needs
further confirmation. Key news announcements in the coming week include Fed
Chair Powell's testimony, Jolts job openings, and Non-farm payrolls. As always,
it is important to remain vigilant and follow the market's lead, rather than
trying to predict its movements.
As a trader, my target for the coming week is to enter long
positions once the upside trend is confirmed, with a weekly target of 4100 and
4150. The key support lies at 3900 and 3930, while the key resistance is at
4060 and 4100. In the words of Schwager, "The key to success is emotional
discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more successful
people with PhDs."
For More Visit:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB9jQC0bhByY5IpxtD2Rbyg
please subscribe